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Abstract Plant-population recovery across large disturbance areas is often seed-limited. An understanding of seed dispersal patterns is fundamental for determining natural-regeneration potential. However, forecasting seed dispersal rates across heterogeneous landscapes remains a challenge. Our objectives were to determine (i) the landscape patterning of post-disturbance seed dispersal, and underlying sources of variation and the scale at which they operate, and (ii) how the natural seed dispersal patterns relate to a seed augmentation strategy. Vertical seed trapping experiments were replicated across 2 years and five burned and/or managed landscapes in sagebrush steppe. Multi-scale sampling and hierarchical Bayesian models were used to determine the scale of spatial variation in seed dispersal. We then integrated an empirical and mechanistic dispersal kernel for wind-dispersed species to project rates of seed dispersal and compared natural seed arrival to typical post-fire aerial seeding rates. Seeds were captured across the range of tested dispersal distances, up to a maximum distance of 26 m from seed-source plants, although dispersal to the furthest traps was variable. Seed dispersal was better explained by transect heterogeneity than by patch or site heterogeneity (transects were nested within patch within site). The number of seeds captured varied from a modelled mean of ~13 m−2 adjacent to patches of seed-producing plants, to nearly none at 10 m from patches, standardized over a 49-day period. Maximum seed dispersal distances on average were estimated to be 16 m according to a novel modelling approach using a ‘latent’ variable for dispersal distance based on seed trapping heights. Surprisingly, statistical representation of wind did not improve model fit and seed rain was not related to the large variation in total available seed of adjacent patches. The models predicted severe seed limitations were likely on typical burned areas, especially compared to the mean 95–250 seeds per m2 that previous literature suggested were required to generate sagebrush recovery. More broadly, our Bayesian data fusion approach could be applied to other cases that require quantitative estimates of long-distance seed dispersal across heterogeneous landscapes. 

Large‐scale disturbances, such as megafires, motivate restoration at equally large extents. Measuring the survival and growth of individual plants plays a key role in current efforts to monitor restoration success. However, the scale of modern restoration (e.g., >10,000 ha) challenges measurements of demographic rates with field data. In this study, we demonstrate how unoccupied aerial system (UAS) flights can provide an efficient solution to the tradeoff of precision and spatial extent in detecting demographic rates from the air. We flew two, sequential UAS flights at two sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) common gardens to measure the survival and growth of individual plants. The accuracy of Bayesian‐optimized segmentation of individual shrub canopies was high (73–95%, depending on the year and site), and remotely sensed survival estimates were within 10% of ground‐truthed survival censuses. Stand age structure affected remotely sensed estimates of growth; growth was overestimated relative to field‐based estimates by 57% in the first garden with older stands, but agreement was high in the second garden with younger stands. Further, younger stands (similar to those just after disturbance) with shorter, smaller plants were sometimes confused with other shrub species and bunchgrasses, demonstrating a need for integrating spectral classification approaches that are increasingly available on affordable UAS platforms. The older stand had several merged canopies, which led to an underestimation of abundance but did not bias remotely sensed survival estimates. Advances in segmentation and UAS structure from motion photogrammetry will enable demographic rate measurements at management‐relevant extents.

 

Understanding interactions between environmental stress and genetic variation is crucial to predict the adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Leaf temperature is both a driver and a responsive indicator of plant physiological response to thermal stress, and methods to monitor it are needed. Foliar temperatures vary across leaf to canopy scales and are influenced by genetic factors, challenging efforts to map and model this critical variable. Thermal imagery collected using unoccupied aerial systems (UAS) offers an innovative way to measure thermal variation in plants across landscapes at leaf‐level resolutions. We used a UAS equipped with a thermal camera to assess temperature variation among genetically distinct populations of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), a keystone plant species that is the focus of intensive restoration efforts throughout much of western North America. We completed flights across a growing season in a sagebrush common garden to map leaf temperature relative to subspecies and cytotype, physiological phenotypes of plants, and summer heat stress. Our objectives were to (1) determine whether leaf‐level stomatal conductance corresponds with changes in crown temperature; (2) quantify genetic (i.e., subspecies and cytotype) contributions to variation in leaf and crown temperatures; and (3) identify how crown structure, solar radiation, and subspecies‐cytotype relate to leaf‐level temperature. When considered across the whole season, stomatal conductance was negatively, non‐linearly correlated with crown‐level temperature derived from UAS. Subspecies identity best explained crown‐level temperature with no difference observed between cytotypes. However, structural phenotypes and microclimate best explained leaf‐level temperature. These results show how fine‐scale thermal mapping can decouple the contribution of genetic, phenotypic, and microclimate factors on leaf temperature dynamics. As climate‐change‐induced heat stress becomes prevalent, thermal UAS represents a promising way to track plant phenotypes that emerge from gene‐by‐environment interactions.

 

The structure and composition of plant communities in drylands are highly variable across scales, from microsites to landscapes. Fine spatial resolution field surveys of dryland plants are essential to unravel the impact of climate change; however, traditional field data collection is challenging considering sampling efforts and costs. Unoccupied aerial systems (UAS) can alleviate this challenge by providing standardized measurements of plant community attributes with high resolution. However, given widespread heterogeneity in plant communities in drylands, and especially across environmental gradients, the transferability of UAS imagery protocols is unclear. Plant functional types (PFTs) are a classification scheme that aggregates the diversity of plant structure and function. We mapped and modeled PFTs and fractional photosynthetic cover using the same UAS imagery protocol across three dryland communities, differentiated by a landscape‐scale gradient of elevation and precipitation. We compared the accuracy of the UAS products between the three dryland sites. PFT classifications and modeled photosynthetic cover had highest accuracies at higher elevations (2241 m) with denser vegetation. The lowest site (1101 m), with more bare ground, had the least agreement with the field data. Notably, shrub cover was well predicted across the gradient of elevation and precipitation (~230–1100 mm/year). UAS surveys captured the heterogeneity of plant cover across sites and presented options to measure leaf‐level composition and structure at landscape levels. Our results demonstrate that some PFTs (i.e., shrubs) can readily be detected across sites using the same UAS imagery protocols, while others (i.e., grasses) may require site‐specific flight protocols for best accuracy. As UAS are increasingly used to monitor dryland vegetation, developing protocols that maximize information and efficiency is a research and management priority.

 

There is an urgent need for near‐term predictions of ecological restoration outcomes despite imperfect knowledge of ecosystems. Restoration outcomes are always uncertain but integrating Bayesian modeling into the process of adaptive management allows researchers and practitioners to explicitly incorporate prior knowledge of ecosystems into future predictions. Although barriers exist, employing qualitative expert knowledge and previous case studies can help narrow the range of uncertainty in forecasts. Software and processes that allow for repeatable methodologies can help bridge the existing gap between theory and application of Bayesian methods in adaptive management.

 

Coastal degradation has spurred active restoration of mangrove ecosystems, from local initiatives to global commitments to increase mangrove forest area by 20% over the next decade. Mangrove restoration projects typically have multiple objectives, including carbon storage, coastal resilience, and fisheries recovery. How planting seedlings, the most common form of active restoration, can promote recovery of mangrove ecosystem functions remains an urgent research need. We quantified multiple ecosystem outcomes of Guyana's national mangrove restoration program, approximately a decade after seedling planting, and compared restoration outcomes with conditions in intact and degraded mangrove forests. Multivariate analyses indicate that intact and restored sites' environmental conditions were similar to each other but different from degraded sites. Aboveground biomass in restored sites (103 Mg ha⁻¹) was 13 and 99% greater than intact (89.4 Mg ha⁻¹) and degraded (0.12 Mg ha⁻¹) sites, respectively. Active restoration successfully increased seedling abundance of both planted and unplanted species, with similar abundance between intact and restored sites. In contrast, fish communities in restored sites remained similar to degraded sites. Restored sites were dominated by a single algivorous fish species, with lower species diversity and commercially valuable fisheries than intact sites. Our results demonstrate that active restoration is a viable option to restore mangrove forest tree biomass and tree species composition in this region. However, even under a best‐case scenario for mangrove forest restoration, fisheries did not recover during our study's timespan. Long‐term monitoring and controlled experiments will be essential to further understand restoration outcomes for multiple ecosystem services in mangrove forests.